Economic Update

Within this month’s update, we share with you a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Underlying economic growth is great!

– New pockets of growth keep emerging

– Markets have responded positively

– The Federal Reserve rate rise shows confidence

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The Big Picture

As we drifted into the end of the financial year, the economic fundamentals continued to strengthen. People spoke of coordinated global growth. And any expectations of recessions here, or in major foreign countries, are far off.The Big Picture

But there were a number of ‘noisy’ events to disturb this rosy picture of growth. There was the Singapore summit between Trump and North Korea leader, Kim Jong-Un. Talk of tariffs and trade wars kept hitting the news wires. And, at home, we had income tax cuts passing into legislation but corporate tax cuts stalling.

The ASX 200 followed an unusually independent path in June. Normally, the Wall Street overnight leads are strong indicators for what happens here – but not so in June.

We posted an impressive gain of +3.0% for our index over June while Wall Street struggled to make a gain of only +0.5%. We had a number of sectors performing particularly well – but it was Financials that drove the market. As by far the largest sector, Financials posted an impressive gain of +4.1% in June. The Banking Royal Commission steams ahead but investors seem to be over it.

Over the financial year, the ASX 200 posted a well-above average capital gain of +8.3% which converts into a total return of +13.0% when dividends are reinvested (but not franking credits). Five of the 11 sectors posted total returns of over 25% in the last 12 months.

The US Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) put its benchmark interest rate up by 0.25% points. This was widely expected but the tone of the press conference led analysts to believe that there may now be two more hikes in 2018 rather than the one most had previously expected.

It is good that the Fed is confident enough in the strength of its economy to edge rates up to their “neutral” level. It will take three more hikes before anyone can conclude that the Fed is ready to start tightening to slow down growth. By mid-2019, the US should be back to normal after a decade of negotiating one crisis after another.

There was also good news in a number of countries from which we do not normally expect to be pleasantly surprised. Spain posted economic growth at an impressive 3%. Greece posted its fifth successive quarter of growth and renegotiated its debt deal. Japan surprised markets with a monthly Industrial Production read of +0.4% when ?0.8% had been expected. And, finally, Australia posted +3.1% economic growth for the year when +2.8% was expected!

Some of the enthusiasm on our market should be attributed to the government getting the income tax cuts through parliament. However, corporate tax cuts are another matter.

Cutting corporate tax rates makes Australian companies more competitive in a global economy. Our current rate is particularly high. Lower taxes should make for better growth and employment. It is fifties-esque politicking to say that tax cuts are just for the big end of town. Just look how the US economy responded to its corporate tax cuts.

Our unemployment rate did fall to 5.4% from 5.6% the previous month but these numbers do wobble about and 5.4% is not an historically low number.

The big problem we see for Australia is that the household savings ratio is falling steeply towards zero from around 10%. We are starting to repeat the debt binge of 2000-2007. The fall in the ratio helps growth. When its stalls there is no longer a contribution to growth and employment will suffer.

We are looking forward to another good year but it won’t last much longer unless the government or the RBA acts soon.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

Our ASX 200 had a solid month posting a total return (i.e. including dividends) of +3.3%. Energy was the best performing sector with +7.8% but Consumer Staples, IT and Utilities all had total returns above +6%. Telcos had another bad month losing ?5.8%. Financials (including the big banks) had a strong month with a total return of +4.1%

The Energy sector also led total returns for the financial year with a gain of 41.6% on a gain in Brent Oil prices of +62.5%. At the other end of the spectrum, Telcos lost ?30.9%. The Utilities sector, at ?0.8%, was the only other to go backwards over the financial year.

We are predicting a below average – but positive – capital gain for the broader index for FY’19. But, with dividends and franking credits, our predicted ‘grossed up’ return is around +9%.

We have the index slightly overpriced to start the new financial year but volatility is well-contained.

Foreign Equities

The world index was down ?0.6% on the month which makes our return look even more impressive.

China’s Shanghai Composite index is now down by more than 20% since its peak earlier in the year.

Over our financial year, our index (+8.3%) just underperformed the world index (+8.5%). The US’s S&P 500 had a capital gain of +12.2% and the Japan Nikkei at 11.3% was not far behind.

Bonds and Interest Rates

The Fed hiked rates in June but it has made it quite clear that it will tolerate slightly above target input data before it considers tightening. This is the sweet spot for growth.

The RBA had rates on hold as all expected. The European Central Bank (ECB) came out more dovish than was expected. The Bank of Japan also was on hold. No one is rushing to stifle growth – partly because wage growth around the world is low.

Other Assets

There have been a number of supply issues with oil production leading to some North American shale oil producers coming back on line.

Over the financial year, oil prices were up about 62.5% while prices for gold and iron ore were flat. Copper prices were up just over 10%.

Regional Analysis

Australia

The monthly read on the labour force was quite good – but not enough to get excited about. At least the slide in the strength of the market over the last few months seems to have been arrested. Economic growth at 3.1% for the year was a pleasant surprise but the chances of staying around that number are not great.

Income tax cuts were introduced but it will take seven years for the full package to work its way through the economy. The corporate tax cuts’ bill has stalled. Unfortunately, the debate has slipped into an “us and them” war. The real issue is global.  If our companies have to pay higher taxes than their overseas competitors, they will take their businesses and jobs overseas – or suffer lower growth at home.

China

China is standing up well to the US over trade and tariffs. It is quite possible that something good will come out of the negotiations even if the style of these interchanges is not what we are used to.

US

The US unemployment rate just came in at 3.8% and there has not been a lower figure since 1974! Trump and his tax cuts seem to be working.

223,000 new jobs were created when only 188,000 were expected – and the previous month’s number was revised upwards by 10,000!

More importantly wages growth came in at 2.7% against an expectation of 2.1%. This is the first real sign that wages are starting to react to jobs data. There really is light at the end of the tunnel.

Europe

Greece has at last got a new debt deal after seven years of austerity. Its PM wore a tie for the first time over this period to celebrate (as he promised he would if a deal got done)! Greece posted five consecutive quarters of positive economic growth and the unemployment rate has fallen from dizzy heights to below 20%.

Spain posted strong growth at 3%. The UK even made some progress in its Brexit debate.

The ECB has been considering tapering for its bond purchase programme. But it came out of its meeting a little more dovish than expected. The ECB is moving gradually and that has helped growth.

The EU is thrashing out new policies on immigration. Compromises are being reached for a more equitable distribution of immigrants.

Rest of the World

It is not clear what will come from the US – North Korea summit on the latter’s nuclear programme. That the summit was even held is extremely positive and both sides seem to have given some wiggle room to the other.

And in a quirk of the soccer World Cup, England supporters cheered on only its second loss ever to Belgium as coming second in its table means it doesn’t play Brazil until the final – should they both make it. For a similar reason in another match, Japan gave up trying in the second half despite being 1-0 down.

Within this month’s update, we share with you a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Smell the roses while we can

– Italian parliament uncertainty caused jitters

– But United States (US) economy keeps on strengthening

– Our Budget could be good for us!

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The Big Picture

Share markets were looking good all month until the last few days of May. Markets are strong because global growth and growth prospects are strong. Then the shenanigans in the Italian parliament caused some wobbles.The Big Picture

Italy is not particularly important in global growth and no one is suggesting Italy is threatening to leave the European Union. But when everything is looking good, a left-of-field event like choosing the leaders in the Italy coalition government suddenly makes everyone wake up. Act first, think later was the maxim!

Anyway, European markets and Wall Street fell by more than one percent on the news – but bounced back the next day. The immediate call was that the US Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) might now not raise rates as expected this year. That impacted bank shares, currencies and movements to safe havens, like US Treasuries over shares.

Anyone who remembers the European crises of the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy/Ireland, Greece and Spain) in 2011-2013 must smile at the reaction to this lesser beast. The worst now seems likely to be that fund managers stats for the month just ended might have suffered a tiny bruise.

On the positive side, a survey of USA CEOs reported that 71% thought the US was up for another three years of good growth. And then the OECD predicted two more strong years of global growth. That backs our view and reinforces our strategies for medium term investing (Forget the short-term. That’s for traders)

The Fed was on hold this past month and the question following the announcement, and then the Fed minutes, was how strong the economy is. It could easily take the two more hikes expected at the beginning of the year. But it might even be able to take an extra one because the economy was still strengthening. Hours after the Italian job, some were suggesting there may now only be one more hike this year!

The US is gliding towards its neutral interest rate of about 2.5% (from the current 1.5% – 1.75%) by mid-2019 and it matters not one iota whether that is one or two months sooner or later!

US CPI inflation came in at 2.5% (but not its preferred “PCE” measure) which is above the 2% target. The Fed has assured us that it can handle inflation above 2% for a little while. There is no need for knee-jerk reactions. This is the stuff of a mature central bank that really is in control. The new chairman, Jay Powell, is earning his stripes.

The US 10 year Treasury (bond) rate hit 3.1% for the first time in years making that asset at last a viable alternative to equities. Then the Italian parliament postured! And the 10-year rate fell to 2.84%

On the face of it, our government’s Federal Budget looked good for growth and stability. The real point is, in this divisive era in politics, what changes will pass parliament?

The argument about cutting taxes for big corporates or low income individuals has been misguided. If tax cuts to corporates increases the pie to the extent that the lower income individual’s new slice of the pie is bigger than it would otherwise have been, that is the way to go. Of course, that is a complex question that requires some serious analysis rather than the divisive call for whom is the most deserving of tax cuts.

Trump placed sanctions on Iran and then had an on-again off-again relationship with North Korea over a Singapore Summit on its nuclear programme. Neither side can afford to look weak so bring on more posturing. Come August, or maybe sooner, global economic growth will be the main game in town again and all might look good.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

Our ASX 200 had a solid month posting a total return (i.e. including reinvested dividends) of +1.1%. Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare stocks posted total returns of over 5%. The only big loser was the Telco sector as it fell about ?10%.

While our broad index is doing quite well, those sectors paying higher dividends have been losing capital value to offset the dividends being paid.

With the financial year drawing to a close, it is worth noting that the total returns for the broad index are up +9.4% while Financials are down ?2.4%, Telcos are down by ?26.7% and Utilities by ?16.4% so far. Obviously, therefore, some sectors are doing particularly well. For example, Materials, Consumer Staples and Healthcare sectors are all up over 20% in the financial year to date.

Foreign Equities

The US S&P 500 and the London FTSE both posted capital gains of 2.2% in May. The world index was almost flat with Japan’s Nikkei and Emerging Markets going backwards.

For much of May, our market did not follow the overnight leads as closely as it often does.

Bonds and Interest Rates

The RBA, Fed and Bank of England were on hold in May. The US 10-year Treasuries’ yield hit a multi-year high before retracing quickly to 2.84%.

The probability of a Fed rate hike in June fell from a near certainty to around 70% on the Italian political news. But, since that murmur has passed, it will probably get back close to a certainty before the June Fed meeting takes place. It is starting to look like we will now get three hikes this year (as they stated in December) rather than the more bullish four many predicted a few weeks ago.

Other Assets

There were no major upheavals in the main commodity prices as they affect Australia. Oil prices have stayed high while the Iran sanctions take hold.

Regional Analysis

Australia

While the rest of the world seems to be going gangbusters, our slightly sluggish growth is not what it could have been with a less divisive parliament. Our unemployment rate kicked up a notch to 5.6% while the US’ rate is down to 3.9% – the lowest this millennium – and the OECD rate is the lowest since 1980.

Our Budget might do something good for the country if it is enacted but much of it probably won’t get through parliament. Everyone else is cutting company taxes while there is big support for not doing so in this country. Are we the only country that knows what is best?

China

Regular readers of this column might recall that we have had an almost unwaveringly positive view about the China economy and its future. Meanwhile there have been a number of periods of intense scepticism from the so-called ‘China bears’.

The hibernation of those bears now means that China economic data releases no longer get as much attention. We keep our ‘eyes on the prize’ and all seems well. This China strength is arguably the reason that the Australian resources gave our more domestically focused stocks a good hiding in the current financial year.

And with the ‘One belt one road’ initiative and stability in the China political hierarchy it might be hard to keep up the enthusiasm for this section of the economic update. It could be become a repetitious ‘all is good’ section!

So the latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing smashed expectations at 51.9 (against an expected 51.3) and the services PMI was a blistering 54.9. A simple ‘50’ is a call for growth.

US

There is increasing support that the US economy is strong – if not getting stronger. Retail sales were good and the Fed’s comments were supportive. That US inflation creeping above its target rate is encouraging. The US unemployment rate was down to 3.9% which is the lowest since the year 2000.

The so-called ‘Beige book’ just came out from the Cleveland Fed. It gave an upbeat report across the regions of the USA. It gave a big plus to manufacturing – President Trump’s special child

Europe

If it wasn’t for the latest political machinations in Italian politics – and they seemingly have had this sort of government for decades, if not longer – the focus would be on Brexit and Trump tariffs on German cars.

Neither negotiations are going well but we are firm believers in the notion that it is in everyone’s interest to get a good outcome without losing face. Perhaps without TV there would be less posturing.

Germany did report some very good wages growth above price inflation but the UK’s Q1 economic growth was low – but possibly because of the really bad weather that was called “the beast from the east”. Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, played that card.

Europe is on track but journalists will always find something to beef about!

Rest of the World

The news from Malaysia that the new Prime Minister just sworn in is 92 years of age caused some surprise.

Importantly, North Korea seems to be coming to the table on nuclear disarmament talks with the US. Of course, Kim Jong Un can’t afford to come quietly. And nor can Trump. It is entirely possible that Trump will have pulled off the negotiation of the decade – if not the millennium – with his “my button is bigger than yours” face-off.

Argentina’ central bank hiked its reference interest rate to 40% (there is no missed decimal point between the “4” and the “0”!) and Turkey hiked its rate from 13.5% to 16.5% in one go. Both are trying to protect their currencies. Any economic problems we have are mild by comparison.

The best news is that the OECD called another two years of strong world growth – at around ‘cruising speed’ of 4% p.a. and the OECD unemployment rate is at the lowest since 1980.

Of course, one day another global recession will arrive but, in the meantime, why not just smell the roses.

Within this month’s update, we share with you a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

– Australian share market recovers
– United State (US) economy seen as strengthening
– Royal Commission casualties
– Korean peninsula frictions easing

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The Big Picture

After two challenging months for equity markets, April turned out an impressive +3.9% for the ASX 200 but only +0.3% for the S&P 500 on Wall Street. Even better for Australia – that big gain was made up of four consecutive weeks of all positive gains. Low volatility returned.

The dominant negative influence on Wall Street was the ‘tech rout’. A number of mega tech companies like Apple suffered significant price corrections. That we do not have such a tech sector in Australia explains in part how we avoided much of the US volatility.

The US produced an impressive company reporting season with about 80% of companies beating analysts’ expectations with their Q1 earnings reports.

The US Federal Reserve (‘Fed’) produced minutes of its last meeting with a strong assessment of the US economy. It led the Fed to hold the line on there being three rate hikes in 2018 but possibly increasing the pace in the following two years.

The US reported slightly weaker economic growth for quarter one but a big beat on Retail Sales for the month. US jobs did come in well under expectations for the month but that followed an exceptionally strong report the previous month. The average of two months’ data was about on expectations.

China posted above-expectations, with economic growth at 6.8%. The April Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing came in at a solid 51.4. Talk of trade wars between the US and China appears to be taking on a more conciliatory tone.

At home, the Royal Commission into the Financial Services Industry produced some casualties. AMP’s chairman resigned as a result of certain findings. A high-profile financial planner (and principal) is reported to have lost all of his regular spots on TV and in the press for allegedly ‘bad’ advice. A UBS analyst put a ‘Sell’ recommendation on Westpac after assessment of evidence on its home loan book. Westpac’s stock price took an immediate tumble.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold in April and again at the May meeting. With inflation coming in at 0.4% for the quarter and 1.9% for the year, this economic indicator is still below the RBA’s target range of 2% to 3%.

Our jobs report continues to see underlying growth in full-time jobs slipping month-by-month but it is still positive. The unemployment rate is stuck at around 5.5% which is well above most people’s estimates for full employment.

Japan emphasised the need to keep monetary policy loose until inflation gets above two per cent. The European Central Bank also reaffirmed that it will not start hiking rates anytime soon. UK economic growth, coming in at only 0.1% for the quarter, means that hikes anytime soon are unlikely. Policy makers around the world seem to be coordinated and in tune with keeping global growth on track for a strong 2018 and 2019.

While President Trump continues to be unpopular in the media and elsewhere, he scored two big wins in April. A joint US-UK-France missile mission attacked terrorist cells in Syria further reducing the likelihood of global unrest from terrorists. In addition, the North Korean president Kim Jong Un walked across the border to South Korea to meet his opposite number. Trump is also reportedly planning a meeting with Kim Jong Un. North and South now have a ‘hotline’ for immediate contact. This sentiment is a far cry from the fear of nuclear attacks from North Korea a few months or more ago. Trump stressing that he had a ‘bigger button’ seems to have worked even if reporters scoffed at the time!

Apart from the controlled unwinding of an overbought tech sector in the US, the world economy and markets seem back on track for stable growth prospects.

Asset Classes

Australian Equities

Our ASX 200 gained in April what largely it had lost in March. Resource stocks and the Healthcare sector were particularly strong performers. A more stable outlook for China and commodity prices helped resources.

Market volatility is back down to below long-term average levels and our index is once again ABOVE the 6,000 level. The total returns for the index – that is including reinvested dividends but not franking credits – for the financial year to date is a reasonable, but not stellar, 8.3%. But, with franking credits, that return rises to about 9.5%.

Foreign Equities

Major indexes such as Japan’s Nikkei, the London FTSE and the German DAX all had an even stronger April than Australia but the Wall Street S&P 500 index only produced a modest return of 0.3%.

Apple’s sales of iPhones are reportedly seen as underperforming; Amazon is being berated by Trump over his perception of its abuse of the US postal service; and Intel’s chip-making business is seen as losing demand as Apple plans to take manufacture of chips in-house by 2020. All-in-all the tech sector had a bad April.

Bonds and Interest Rates

The RBA did not change rates at the April nor May meetings. It is doubtful that they will raise rates in 2018 and they might even cut.

There are reports from the US Fed that rates might start to go up quicker than was thought at the beginning of the year. This is a sign of strength and markets took the statements within its stride. Ten year bonds broke through three per cent for the first time in a few years.

Japan’s chief central banker, Yutaka Harada, emphasised that monetary stimulus will continue until inflation exceeds two percent. The ECB also indicated that rate hikes are not front-of-mind.

Other Assets

The prices of oil, iron ore and copper all posted a strong April. Gold was flat. Our dollar was down a fraction.

Regional Analysis

Australia

While 4,900 new jobs were reported to have been created in April, 19,859 full-time jobs were lost. Part-time growth rescued the day. But, in trend terms, there was a small increase of 1,150 full-time jobs. The unemployment rate was flat at 5.5%.

Inflation came in at 0.4% for the quarter and 1.9% for the year – below the RBA target band. Retail sales grew by only 0.1% for the month.

The Budget will be handed down in May. With economic growth less than desired, we hope for some additional fiscal stimulus.

China

The dialogue between the US and China softened over April and the US announced various exceptions to its steel and aluminium tariffs.

China’s economic growth came in at 6.8% which was just above the expectations of 6.7%. China’s manufacturing PMI was 51.4 – just down from 51.5 in the previous month – but still above expectations.

US

After a major increase in jobs reported in March, the release in April was much lower. But the average jobs gain over the two months was above 200,000 per month. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.1%.

US economic growth came in at 2.3% which is down from 2.9% at the end of 2017. However, growth will be revised again (as always) in May and June. Because of weather conditions, this provisional read often gets revised upwards for the first quarter.

With retail sales at a very strong growth of 0.6% for the month, the consumer is back.

Europe

United Kingdom (UK) growth was barely positive at 0.1% for the first quarter which was much less than the expected 0.3%.
Greece is trying to renegotiate its debt repayments with the IMF and the EU. The idea is to tie repayments to economic growth but the two bodies cannot agree on their predictions!

Rest of the World

There is now a ‘hotline’ between North and South Korea. The two presidents shook hands on both sides of the border in an historic meeting. Trump is now saying he gets on well with Kim Jong Un and Trump plans to meet with him soon to discuss restrictions on nuclear capabilities. This is a big plus for world peace.

The US combined forces with France and the UK to launch a targeted missile attack on parts of Syria. It appears that ISIS is becoming much less of a global threat.